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jeffolie

Politicians rarely perform as promised.

Illegal immigration is a bullet issue. Catholics have Cardinal Mahoney as pro illegals. Anti illegals have Rep. Tancredo.

I doubt a 3rd party will emerge about illegals from the Republican side.

GK

But the issue of illegals has totally confused people about what is 'Right' and what is 'Left'. Note how prominent conservatives wholly disagree with each other, and prominent liberals like Lou Dobbs are smeared by other leftists as racists.

There are now 4 quadrants, 4 possible positions on this issue, not just two. An isolationist 3rd party candidate could emerge, and it would not be clear whether he was right or left. Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader, both isolationists, agree strongly on this issue, confusing people about who's side they should be on.

All that is needed is for a 3rd party candidate to take away a few percentage points of votes to screw up the two-party system.

jeffolie

All elections in modern times have had 3rd parties. The way the electorial college works, no 3rd party electors have voted. The popular vote does not elect the president. Ross Periot did not matter.

GK

Surely you recognize that when Perot got 19% of the popular vote in 1992, he cannibalized votes from GHWB and Clinton won with just 41%, and that when Nader got 2% in 2000, GWB won with just 49%.

For example, in Ohio in 1992, Clinton got 40%, GHWB got 38%, and Perot got 22%. Clinton got all of Ohio's Electoral Votes, even with just 40% of the popular votes. If Perot was not there, Clinton probably would not have won Ohio (or many other states).

Same with Nader taking votes from Gore in Florida and New Hampshire in 2000, costing him states he otherwise may have won (and thus the election).

jeffolie

Point well taken.

lgude

As a long time expatriate living in Perth Western Australia (I've been blogging at www.yankeewombat.com about as long as you have) I had put down my inability to feel much connection to the US immigration debate to my remote position rather than your 'vertical axis' and consequent idealogical fragmentation. I think you are right and that it really does have the potential to introduce 3rd party distortions into the 2008 elections that could easily alter the result. Even without poll numbers, I am pretty sure that there is more concern on the issue than either party is in a position to really meet, much less satisfy. I correspond with some quite middle of the road middle westerners who see it as an important issue - well before the recent large demonstrations too. They want some kind of change in the direction of more control and I don't think either party impresses them the way things are going. I would say they are moderate Red Staters who might vote either way in a two party race who are becoming concerned enough that they would listen seriously to any third party candidate who credibly addressed the immigration issue.

I would add that I currently see 2008 as a probable win for an alliance of the left and what you refer to as the fashion sheep putting Hillary in the White House. I think this block in US politics and in Europe has an election or two left in them before it becomes obvious that we can't get back to the 'good old days' when leftist thinking seemed to be simply common sense. I understand that Bush or any president's situation is tough because any strong position like a fence would likely put a Chavez ally into government in Mexico. So those big demos, and the negative reactions to them, may ironically end up stifling the economic reform that Mexico needs to make illegal immigration unnecessary. What a mess!

D.R. Shirell

I can't believe how many Republicans are stupidly supporting the radical left's covert strategy of "the browning of America" for the sole purpose of increasing its voter base.

Paul R. Gregory

We are confronted at a very invasive attitude. That attitude has it that it is justified in the violation of our laws, civil and criminal. It can also put aside ordinary civility , when it suits it so. Said attitude justifies itself thru a self serving rendition of history -- the seven western states were conquered away from it and now it is engaged in a Righteous “Reconquest”.

An alternate, self serving, rendition of history :

Today, if one were to hold an election in the seven western states to determine which government would be preferred -- that of the U.S. or that of Mexico -- there is little doubt that the U.S. would be chosen. It was much the same one hundred and fifty years ago, and that is why history went the way it did. After twenty years of experience of the Mexican government people in the west formed independent republics. The Mexican Army attacked several of these republics and these requested the assistance of the United States, which then sent it’s Army.

It is preferred that we do not live in Mexico, thus it is better that we are not “Reconquered” .
So one would want that the border be maintained and enforced.

Laika

Every time one of those huge demonstrations appeared on TV thousands of votes flowed to the Republican party. It's incredibly hard to get into the USA legally, and it's a very attractive option compared to Mexico so that, and a huge land border is going to create a big illegal problem. Make legal emmigration much easier, send illegals home and, if you're a republican, encourage as many giant demos as possible. Votes in the bank. The politically correct media will unwittingly do the democrat cause huge damage the more they push their agenda.

Kamatu

The problem being that if the GOP does nothing towards building a wall and enforcing draconion penalties on employers of illegals, then in 2006 you get a sit out or mass write-ins for "Repub W. Spine" which may throw the House over to the Dems.

What is being missed here is that the biggest voting bloc in the US are probably the Jacksonians who can arguably be counted as the largest number of disaffected nonvoters, a significant GOP bloc and a minor but significant Dem bloc.

Ralph Dreifus

A constitutional convention is our only choice. We have the best government private interest can buy.

The governemtn cannot fulfill its obligations to the people of this country much less half of the Spanish Speaking world who want to move here.

A democracy in Iraq ? All for the control of natural resources and for no other reason. Puppet governments for the benefit of the privledged few

The Iranians hate us? You bet for good reason. Read your history and find out why ? It is obivious unless you are self absorbed and somehow think you are on the moral high ground.

Hillary Clinton ? Please she is bought and paid for the same a the Bush family top to bottom. You people simply do not get it.

Bebo Riley

Why is Drefius bring up Hilly and the Bush babies in the same comment? It is abundantly clear that she is the only candidate in the race with the experience and morals to go the distance. If she is bought and paid for by the monied interests in this country, that only proves that we can count on her to take and hold a position, politically speaking, until someone or some other group, is willing to pay more to change her mind. That makes her reliable and predicable in economic terms. We are not likey to see some un-expected or radical turn from a steady and reliable leader of her caliber. It is almost a certainty she won't be blowing anyone in the oval office either.

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