Solar Energy Cost Curve

Forbes has a whole feature on Solar Energy this week.  Within, I found a chart that I have been seeking for a long time - a chart tracking the declining cost of electricity generated by photovoltaic surfaces. 

It appears that cost parity with present residential electricity rates is finally imminent.  Also, migration to solar power could happen rapidly before full cost parity due to tax breaks, and the fact that solar energy is generated at the time of day when electricity rates are already the highest. 

For reference, below is a chart of US solar intensity.  It is quite possible that by 2020, many homes in the southern US will have photovoltaic surfaces on their rooftops.  This, combined with the spread of plug-in hybrids and fully electric vehicles (including those from Tesla motors, which come with their own included solar panel), will lead to a fascinating simultaneous shift from a portion of coal consumption to renewables (solar, wind), and from a portion of petroleum consumption to electricity.  So solar would indirectly eat into a small slice of oil consumption.

Related :

A Future Timeline for Energy

Comments

[Saul Wall]

I read somewhere recently that only about 12% of US homes are energy efficient so dealing with that could help decrease the oil and coal used. I don't know if it is just the age of many homes and apartments or maybe that the technology of air conditioning has only been cheap enough in recent decades to make insulation important in the south but whatever the cause, there seems to be a lot of potential energy savings available.

I recently heard of a paint additive that contains tiny hollow spheres so that the paint (it changes the color by one shade) or the primer can improve the insulation value for the wall it is applied to. There was also a piece on the Discovery Channel's Daily Planet where some company had developed a means of getting the grease out of the hot air going into restaurant stove vents so that the cleaner warm air could be used to heat incoming air without the grease condensing inside and clogging the system which had been a problem with previous attempts to recapture restaurant vent heat.

I would suspect that there are a lot of places where energy can be saved in residential, commercial and industrial settings that are not currently being taken advantage of for various reasons. Many of these savings could be obtained with little or no negative impact on our quality of life.

[Steel]

Solar panels are so last century.

There is already roofing material made of flexible photovoltaic material and I just saw a story last week about photovoltaic paint.

Also saw a story about photovoltaic glass.

No more panels.

The entire house and the fence and driveway will all produce electricty and that technology is already here now.

[Steel]

Oh, almost forgot, there is very promising research into biovoltaic technologies.

Perhaps the lawn will also generate power.

[jeffolie]

At last we agree on a technology with an effective, efficient application - solar.

Solar has been a long time developing and the industry is climbing a steep learning curve. I am very encouraged.

Great post thread, thank you.

[GK]

Saul Wall,

The paint additive is interesting. I hope it becomes a reality. That would enable a lot of older houses to get with the program.

Steel,

None of those fantastic technologies are going to be available to average consumers before 2025.

jeffolie,

I still think solar will not be more than 10% of US electricity consumption by 2020, but that is 10% off of a larger usage base from plug-in hybrid use, which itself would have resulted in petroleum consumption.

[Nortius Maximus]

I call shenanigans on that DoE curve. Notice the downward inflection in the dotted-line parts? Wonder how they came up with that? I sure do. Notice also that it's labeled "costs to consumer" -- not total cost, nor total cost factoring in pollution and carbon credits. Take this projection cum grano salis.

[RLentz]

With 30% rebate given by the federal govt plus other local rebate which are valid until 2016 I believe more people will substitute some fractions of their grid electricity by solar electricity. It is not about fully conversion of the system, even 10 to 15% energy substitution will give great impact on the fossil fuel consumption if all of us takes part in utilizing this green energy.