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zyndryl

I only voted for the 2040-2050 to stay on the conservative side. My gut choice was originally 2030-2040.

So, I predict around 2035-2045. :)

Protagonist

I voted for 2010-2020.

Reaching this great milestone won't be like watching a moon landing on TV, but will be very subtle occurrence.

Take your pick: heart disease/strokes, cancer, diabetus, Alzheimer's/dementia. Find a definitive cure to one of these and life expectancy goes up easily by 10-15 years, that year. And I've heard tons of news and study that suggest definitive cures or prevention of these are possible in the next 10-15 years.

Find the cure to all three, and everyone's basically living to 120. Plenty of time for a singularity.

Dave

Perhaps the biggest variable as to when AEV is achieved is whether or not we get socialized medicine in the U.S. If that occurs, quality of medical care will drop do to loss of market forces: Medical and biotech firms will lose incentives for R&D and bright, ambitious people will choose professions other than medicine.

Too bad that at the very time we're at the cusp of AEV, we're also ready to throw a huge monkey wrench into the machine that will make it happen.

GK

Dave,

That is possible, which is why it is important for biotech R&D to occur in multiple countries, not just the US.

Protagonist,

Curing any of those is a tall order. Also, even if, say, heart disease is cured, that just means that there is more time to inevitably contract cancer and Alzheimers. Note that cancer death rates rose a lot before they fell, as longer lives due to the elimination of TB, Malaria, etc. enabled people to live long enough to actually get cancer.

And curing all 4 of these diseases is still not a *reversal* in aging, just a slowing down.

b

Interesting concept, but I don't think we will ever reach a time when the average life expectancy is increasing by over 1 year every year.

Technological advances may be an exponential curve, but human limitations are best represented by an inverse of that curve.

Will humans ever sprint at 100mph or throw a baseball at 200mph? I doubt it, at least not without some sort of bionic limbs.

So maybe it will happen when we're growing replacement human organs inside braindead genetically engineered pigs or whatever...

stalker

Hello, GK. I used to be ilya.

I am split between 2030-40 and 2040-50, but picked the latter to be on the safe side.

Btw, just to nitpick...

Just a few decades ago, the rate on increase in life expectancy was slower than 0.2 years per year. In the 19th century, even the wealthiest societies were adding well under 0.1 years per year.

Take a look at this graph of historical US life expectancy (ignore the projection).

http://www.healthypeople.gov/document/images/fig1.jpg

Life expectancy does not follow an obviously exponential trend. It shows that improvements were a lot more rapid, relatively, in 1900-50 (c.20 yrs), than in 1950-2000 (c.10 yrs). Indeed, in % terms US LE increased at a similar rate in 1950-2000 as it did throughout the nineteenth century.

Ken

There's two parts to this though. One is preventing premature death - heart attack, cancer - and one is prolonging the overall life of whatever index dates us, whether it's DNA or telomeres or whatever. Even if we elongate the lifespan, whether exponentially or linearly, we're going to hit a wall at the limit of cell/DNA/telomere life unless we find a way to refresh them.

SanFranciscoJim

The extremely wealthy will be able to extend their life indefinitely, but most of us will still end up dying of pedestrian causes, mostly infections picked up in hospital stays. There is no way that our economy can support a population that is 50% invalids over 100, so most people will just be allowed to go.

Perhaps at some point, the aging of the brain will be reversible or stoppable and we will have widespread adoption of robots for labor, but I don't expect that anytime this century.

ces

You need to review your references more carefully. The life expectancy tables show that life expectancy was increasing by 0.29 years per year in the 70's. This droped to 0.17 and 0.16 years/year in the 80's and 90's respectively. Yes, the rate increased back up to 0.21 from 1994 to 2004, but there is no clear trend here.

Michal Tatarynowicz

I think that at least for the next 2-3 hundred years people, even the richest, will not be able to survive forever. The oldest people alive will tend die from problems of old age that we simply won't yet have a cure for.

Savethemales

Stem cells alone is predicted for 200 year lifespans, this is more than enough time for the technological singularity of 2060 to cause AEV.

Johnny

@ces Life expectancy was artificially low in the mid 20th century, due to smoking.

Chris

I have heard Kurzweil mention many times that we will be increasing our life expectancy one year for every year we age in the next 15 years not by 2013 or by 2050

Chris

excuse me I must be needing glasses - I misread!

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