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Andrew McGuinness

If one of the two must occur, then they're mutually exhaustive.


"China also cannot become a superpower with evolving to a Democracy" Why? I believe so too, though merely stating it isn't the same as an argument for this point of view.



Read the article again, where it states that certain types of advanced economic growth cannot occur without creativity and self-determination. Until China becomes a democracy, these will not occur, and their economy will not go to the next level.


I think that what will really result in the down turn in the Chinese economy is the fact that it is still mostly communist. While the economic growth following their "reforms" has been impressive, it is just disguising the huge state run corporations and other socialist souvenirs that still hang around their nation's head like the proverbial albatross. China could be fated to watch India eclipse them on all fronts if they don't speed up the economic reforms. I just hope they don't take too many national economies down with them when their bubble bursts.

This is a shame because the rich and the middle class will be the ones to reform China when it happens and that is less likely to happen until their are sufficient numbers of them.


I predict that it is much more likely that China will simply fly apart like the old SovUn did.

The richer coastal provinces will go their own way, for example. The Taiwan Issue might thus just be settled in a way that nobody imagines now.

The ChiComs are acutely aware of this possibility and fear it. They'll have to clamp down hard at some point. That's when the economic growth slams to a halt, which in turn will exacerbate the tensions and a nasty negative feedback loop will begin.

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