The Futurist's Stock Portfolio for 2008.

Early this year, I presented my 2007 portfolio, which will be evaluated on December 31, 2007, in relation to the performance of the S&P500 index. 

I am now going to present my 2008 portfolio, which is to be tracked over the remaining 13+ months between now and the end of 2008, again in relation to the S&P500 index.  The hypothetical portfolio of $100,000 will be invested in exchange-traded securities and mutual funds that reflect what I believe to be an optimal portfolio construction for 2007.  We will, at the end of the period, see how the portfolio tracks the broader market.  Dividends will be re-invested. 

So the portfolio is :

 

This is a simpler portfolio, with less emphasis on gaming, and more on fundamental value-based principles.  The selections represent general principles and specific predictions outlined in the previously written articles :

The Next Big Thing in Entertainment, Part I, Part 2, and especially Part 3

The Culture of Success and Stock Market Capitalization in Developing Countries

The Stock Market is Exponentially Accelerating too

I hereby sign and seal this portfolio, bought at the prices on November 9, 2007, to be evaluated on the last trading day before December 31, 2008. 

Comments

[World Citizen]

I was following closely your portfolio picks, GK.
I must tell you, your 2007 portfolio ended up in negative number. Right now they are all in -3%, and constantly were -10% combined.

My picks are 30% up and growing ;) and are all in green energy shares like PBW.

Well, good luck with your 2008 picks. I would not recommend placing 15% in India right now - weak dollar and the decreasing outsourcing will drive the shares down. ;)

[GK]

WC,

Actually, my 2007 portfolio is up about 4%, vs. 3% for the S&P500, so a tiny bit ahead. You may not have accounted for all of the dividends (particularly the $5 IIF dividend in June), and Yahoo Finance misses some dividends. To get the true dividends, you have to go to Morningstar.

ICF was a bad pick, and I even said that I strongly considered FXI instead. Had I done that, I would be far, far ahead, as FXI has had a +80% return, vs. a -18% return for ICF.

But I am still a hair ahead of the S&P500 in the 2007 portfolio.

For 2008, we shall see. Note that most of India's stock market is consumer durables and non-durables, and thus not so dependent on outsourcing. Furthermore, a weak dollar makes the value of IIF rise in dollar terms.

[World Citizen]

Well, dividends are good, but I mostly consider them as a bonus, because after paying taxes, the profits are very slim, unless you are under a corporate umbrella with tax cuts.

Even if IIF rises in dollar terms, it still weak against euro and sterling, which drives imports higher in prices...

In this market, ETFs would be a good choice... I'm not sure about Google also - it's good if you have a lot of money... :) If they flip with the gPhone/Android idea next year, the shares may sink rapidly.

[brokerdavelhr]

GK,
The cisco systems going toward a 5% increase is a bit of a no brainer. It has a habit of that.
I used to be a broker and worked for a company called LH Ross. It proved not to be my cup of tea so I quit and pursued a career in IT instead.
My 2 picks over the next 6 months is AMD, and NVDA. I would attempt to pick up the AMD as close to 12 as possible. It has a good chance of seeing at least 18. Many would argue that its main competitor (Intel) would be a better buy. This is a little ridiculous to me though considering the fact that AMD has poured money into R&D, and has picked up contracts that used to be Intel exclusive (such as w/ Gateway, HP, and many other vendors). In addition to this, AMD has payed off a large amount of corporate debt, making it an attractive buy in the low 12's.
As for NVDA, I would make the attempt to buy at around $26 a share. I am hoping that it dips to this in the next few months for a bargain. I would look for it to see up to $40 within the next year. Considering it's sales and performance, I believe it could pull it off.
Most people will try to avoid the technology sector due to it's 'instability'. I would like to correct this misnomer. If you do your research thoroughly, and watch it closely, there is actually very little to worry about.
Just throwing it out there.

[brokerdavelhr]

In addition to last,
It should be noted that AMD was the only company thus far (outside of JAVAD) that had produced a true quad core processor. Intel just slapped 2 dual cores together.
In addition to this, AMD's quad-core processor experienced higher performance then the Intel chips.
While this only applies to servers (there is no need for a quad core processor on a home computer), once the major server producers (DELL, HP, etc.) finish realizing the ramifications of this, Intel could be in a long term bind. They beat out AMD on the market only because they took a shortcut (in addition to AMD's spending money on R&D to do things the right way), a practice that could ruin the company if it continues to be pursued.
Also, keep in tmind that two years ago, Dell,HP,Gateway etc, never used AMD chips as Intel produced the better chip. Now you see AMD chips in all those companies.
Think it is possible for NVIDIA to do the same with ATI?

[Mukundan]

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[mob]

so what happened?

[Forex Trading]

I must say that your stock portfolios sure seem promising! It is funny to look back to 2008 and see how you done! Keep up the great work, and I wish for you a whole lot of good luck and smart decisions in 2011 :)